030512_sintesi aprile

In April the Italian stock market saw a big rise in share prices and substantial stability in turnover, while IDEM stock futures trading reached new all-time highs.

The Mib index grew steadily (more marked in the initial phase, concurrent with the development of war events in Iraq) - with 13 positive sessions and 6 negative - ending the month at 17,282, up 10.5% at the end of March (the best monthly performance since February 2000) and exceeding the end of 2002 levels (+1.9%). With respect to the year low on 12 March the recovery was 16.2%.

A similar trend in the Nuovo Mercato Numex index saw it up 13.2% in the month (+0.8% on the end of 2002 and +18.4% compared with the year low on 12 March).

The continuous indices showed a homogeneous trend: Mibtel +10.2% (+1.4% on the end of 2002), Mib30 +10.6% (+1.7%), Midex +10.9% (+2.0%). The MibSTAR index was +7.3%, surpassing the end of 2002 levels (+0.2%).

In the European context, the Italian market was in line with the other principal markets (Paris +12.8%, Madrid +10.5%, Zurich +11.2%, London +9.0%) except for the German market, which had a more consistent increase (+21.4%).

The three macrosectors had a differentiated trend with Financials +13.4%, Services +9.8% and Industrials +7.6%, and compared with the end of 2002, Financials were +9.4%, Services +2.8% and Industrials -9.4%. All the principal sectors (equivalent to at least 1% of capitalisation) recorded positive moves, particularly Auto (+17.9%), Banks (+14.0%) and Insurance (+13.5%). Compared with the end of the year the main changes were, on the one hand, those of Transport-Tourism (+19.2%) and Real Estate (+18.6%), and on the other, Textiles (-13.4%) and Mining-Metall.-Oil (-14.7%).

Standing out among the main Mib30 stocks (all positive) were Banca Fideuram (+25.7%), Banca Nazionale del Lavoro (+25.4%), Banca Monte Paschi Siena (+24.6%), Parmalat Finanziaria (+23.8%) and Fiat (+23.0%), with Snam Rete Gas (+1.6%), Enel (+2.6%) and Eni (+4.6%).

After the growth in the previous period, volatility fell to 16.0% for Borsa (where the STAR segment remained more restrained, at 7.0%) and 22.4% for the Nuovo Mercato.

The rise in share prices also resulted in an increase in the capitalisation of listed domestic companies, rising from €414.3 billion at the end of March to €460.8 billion (equal to 35.3% of GDP and higher than the €458.0 billion recorded at the end of 2002). A breakdown of the markets sees Borsa at €449.9 billion, Nuovo Mercato at €6.1 billion and Mercato Ristretto at €4.9 billion.

The Borsa Italiana stock market list was unchanged, the number of listed companies remaining at 287, with 229 listed companies for Borsa (6 of which foreign), 44 for Nuovo Mercato (2 foreign) and 14 for Mercato Ristretto.

Following 368 admissions and 22 delistings, the number of instruments listed on the Covered Warrants Market (MCW) increased from 2,652 to 2,998 (3,571 at the end of 2002).

Primary market

The completed capital expansion operations of Edison, Banca Popolare Lodi and Terme Acqui raised €1,682 million, €779 million and €45 million. The unopted percentages of the three operations were 19.7%, 1.5% and 8.7%.

Also concluded in the month was the Newco Laser voluntary TOB for Prima Industrie, which was fruitless, Bipielle Retail's full compulsory takeover bid for Banco di Chiavari and Palia's voluntary bid for Savino del Bene, which gave back to the market €106 million and €54 million, respectively.

Trading in stocks (158,200 contracts and €2.78 billion a day) was slightly down on the previous month (-6.86% in contracts, -3.9% in turnover), and -1.0% for contracts and +0.9% in turnover compared with April 2002. In the first four months of the year the daily average was 156,200 contracts and €2.67 billion

(-1.8% and +8.5% on the corresponding period in 2002).

In detail, the daily average was 148,200 contracts and €2.75 billion for Borsa stocks (-7.9% and -4.1% on March, -0.2% and +1.0% compared with April 2002) and 9,800 contracts and €31.8 million for those of the Nuovo Mercato (+12.0% and +23.3% on March, -12.2% and -9.6% compared with April 2002).

The average size of stock contracts (Borsa, daytime session) was up on March (from €18,100 to €18,800), while remaining above the average figure for 2002 (€17,100).

Eni had the highest turnover, with 14.3% of the total trading volume, followed by STMicroelectronics (12.8%) and Tim (10.2%).

Trading in covered warrants fell slightly in terms of number of contracts (daily average 19,600, -6.0% on March, and -22.0% on April 2002), with an increase in turnover (daily average €38.1 million, +8.9% on March, -55.5% on April 2002). In the first four months of the year the daily average was 19,400 contracts and €35.4 million (-20.0% and -54.9% on the corresponding period in 2002).

After-hours trading recorded a daily average of 5,900 contracts (-4.5% on March and -4.4% on April 2002) and €29.9 million (-6.7% and -5.8%). The intensity of trading was substantially stable both for contracts (12.7%) and turnover (3.7%). In the first four months of the year the daily average reached 5,800 contracts and €28.3 million (-12.8% and +19.8% on the corresponding period in 2002).

ETF's, traded since last September, recorded a turnover of 2,600 contracts - a new all-time high - and €69.4 million. The average size of contracts was considerably down (€26,400), indicating the growing popularity of the new instruments with the retail public.

The EuroMOT confirmed good levels of liquidity, with a daily average of 586 contracts (+4.8% on March and +215.4% compared with April 2002) and €14.0 million (-4.9% and +104.1%). In the first four months of 2003 the daily average in turnover was €15.0 million, +66.5% on the corresponding period in the previous year.

Fixed-interest securities traded on the Mot (bonds and government securities market) recorded a fall: for government securities the daily average fell to €497 million (-3.2% on March, -21.7% on April 2002), whereas bonds dropped to 34.2 (-21.4% and +17.7%). In the first four months of 2003 the daily average for government securities traded reached €514 million (-19.0% on the corresponding period in the previous year), and €42.1 million for bonds (+18.2%). IDEM derivatives trading was down on the record levels of the previous month (also affected by the quarterly maturity). Mib30 futures recorded a daily average of 18,000 standard contracts (-24.8% on March, +9.1% compared with April 2002); the miniFIB reached its second best ever result, with 12,600 standard contracts a day (+89.9% on April 2002); Mib30 options recorded an average of 10,800 standard contracts (+ 70.6%). Trading of IDEM stock futures - traded since last July - increased, reaching the new all-time high of 3,700 standard contracts a day (up 188.7% on the previous month).

Stock options recorded 30,600 standard contracts a day (+11.9% on April 2002). In particular, April 25th saw 14,474 standard contracts for IDEM stock futures traded, for a notional counter-value of €87.9 million and a new record for trades in a single session.

Considering the entire IDEM, the average figure of 75,800 standard contracts a day shows a 33.4% increase on April 2002. In the first four months of 2003 the IDEM daily average was 76,300 standard contracts, up 30.5% on the corresponding period in 2002.

Milan, 9 May 2003